Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
